For some of us, the Trump administration’s accruing aberrant actions have affirmed that the US is now a rogue state. Many say it has been for years, stealing oil from Iraq, African nations, and now Venezuela; abusing human rights and orchestrating regime change in Latin America and the Middle East where left-leaning or non-aligned governments nationalised natural resources; and interfering in domestic politics, usually towards the right, and possibly including the dismissal of Prime Minster Gough Whitlam.

If you’re wondering what a rogue state is there’s no official definition, but there are some typical characteristics. These include a disregard for international law, perpetrating human rights violations, authoritarian rule, recklessness, and the pursuit of weapons of mass destruction. 

You could also argue other signs of the US going rogue include its deliberate destabilisation of the world economic order with the introduction of unlawful tariffs, aggressive technological domination and manipulation, and even a lack of action on global warming. Then there’s America’s dubious relationship with Russia, which by its own admission is conducting a cyber cold war, and increasingly a physical one against the West, especially Europe. 

Holding similar concerns and in a first, Denmark recently described the US as a potential security threat due to its use of economic and military coercion, along with its desire to subjugate Greenland for its rich natural resources. Additionally, the UK has stopped sharing intelligence with the US on the Caribbean under the Five Eyes alliance because it’s concerned about breaching international law and ending up in the International Criminal Court.

While historically it suited the West to turn a blind eye to America’s abuses because we shared similar values and they were a powerful strategic ally that did some of our dirty work, this is no longer the case. The US does not pretend to be values driven these days, nor does it demonstrate respect for hard fought for and valued institutions, or its allies.

Where does that leave Australia, a middle power that’s fought alongside the US in every war, from WW2 to Korea, Iraq and more?

You could argue that Trump will not be in power forever and things will soon return to a new normal. However, the US can’t go back, and neither can the world. American behaviours have set dangerous precedents, paving the way for other countries to also misbehave without punitive consequences. 

For Australia, we should never place such heavy reliance on a single ally again. In 2022 Labor said about the US that we will “cooperate where we can, disagree where we must, and engage in the national interest”. We need to be more proactive than this now. 

Yet, Australian foreign policy appears to remain “All the way with LBJ” (a declaration made by Prime Minster Holt to President Lydon B Johnson in the 1970s symbolising Australia’s strong commitment to the US alliance during the Cold and Vietnam wars). In fact, the Labor government continues to describe the US as our “principal strategic partner and ally”.

In that vein, Defence Secretary Hegseth just announced that the US will be upgrading infrastructure and logistics in the Northern Territory, Queensland, and across Australia to allow for additional US bomber rotations, deployments, and pre-positioning. 

There was no discussion around whether the US can be trusted to behave responsibly in the Asia-Pacific region, and in line with Australian national interests. This is questionable with regards to China. Australia was the first Western nation to build bridges with, and visit China in the 1970s, with the US following. We did this because we’re part of the Asia-Pacific region and foresaw the rise of China. Australian sovereignty concerns aside, this expansion might make us a greater target for a China that one day wants to hurt the US. As we’ve seen before, the US likes to deflect wars offshore too.

Australia has also recently signed an agreement on the supply and processing of critical minerals and rare earths to the US aimed at reducing reliance on China. There’s been no thought given to the serious environmental impact such mining is reported to have, with Foreign Minister Wong stating that “the US relationship matters more than some domestic politics about environmental reform”. It’s revealing that the environment is not seen by Labor (or Liberal) as a serious matter threatening the viability of our shared planet, all nations, and life itself. It has done little in this area. Of note, tariffs against Australia persist, and threats of more such as the 100% one on our film industry continue. 

So where should Australia look for alliances as a middle power that is neither Asian but multicultural by identity, nor European in location?

Despite that we’ve seen how, like the US, China can wield economic coercion and trade blockages against us, we need to continue to build that relationship. As a former diplomat posted to Jakarta, East Timor and New Zealand, I understand Australia’s sway, or sometimes lack of, in the region. We do matter, and we have natural resources China needs. We must strengthen real ties with China and the region across the board.

On that note, our relationship with India as an emerging power with similar interests needs to develop, including in strategic and defence cooperation, trade and investment, agriculture and water, and education. 

Then there are our existing ties with other UCANZA members, namely Canada, the UK and New Zealand, that can be directly strengthened where gaps appear at the bilateral level, for example in critical minerals, defence, and non-tariff barriers. 

For some time now, China has been busy undercutting our relationships in the Indo-Pacific, so we need to put more time and money into those relationships. And while Europe is a long way away, we share a rules-based world order view. Opportunities must be explored on strategic cooperation in security, the green energy transition, research and innovation, and trade diversification.

If, as it’s said, Trump thrives on the caution and ineptitude of his opponents, Australia needs to stand up for itself, in its own national interest for the Australian people, and not subordinate our values, priorities and region.